Here’s a summary of what you missed if you didn’t attend NZIA’s The Future of Housing Summit at this year’s BuildNZ, which explored housing affordability, sustainable development and the macroeconomic forces shaping the future of housing.

Speaker #1: Tony Alexander, Independent Economist

Consents are up 20%. Don't expect a recovery / an improvement until 2027.

New Zealand's consent numbers just hit their highest level since 1974, if you ignore the madness of the Covid spike. That should feel like great news for the design and build sector. And according to Tony Alexander, it's real — but the payoff is still a year or two away.

The good news

• Annual dwelling consents have climbed from ~33,500 to ~40,000 (12-month rolling numbers to May-26), driven by a genuine structural shift: more land freed up post-Christchurch earthquake, and intensification enabled by the Auckland Unitary Plan.
• The consent-to-population ratio (a marker much celebrated by Tony) has moved from a low of 0.63% to 0.74% — above the 50-year average of 0.65%.
• Farm incomes are up sharply too, which is driving farm-related building (dairy +38%, tourism/accommodation +96%, by consent value), and falling last year’s deduction in interest rates is starting to work through the economy with its usual 12–24 month lag.

The catch

• Actual construction activity is still falling — residential down ~4%, non-residential down ~13% year-on-year.
• The gap between consents and construction is being pushed out by election uncertainty, materials cost anxiety, and global volatility (Middle East, oil prices).
• Tony expects the real translation into building activity to land in 2027–2028, not this year.

Why house prices won't roar back

First-home buyers now make up 27–29% of sales, up from 21% three years ago — proof young buyers haven't been locked out. Meanwhile, the “must-buy-now” investor mentality has evaporated: Tony's “FOMO index” has dropped from 92% of buyers in 2020 to just 6% today.

The takeaway for our sector

This isn't a false dawn — it's a delayed one. Watch your cash flow, be cautious with spec-build pricing assumptions, and plan for the real upturn to land closer to 2027 than 2026.

Panel #2: Cross-Party Political Panel

Five Parties, One Message: Stop the Policy Ping-Pong

If there's one thing every political party agreed on at BuildNZ this year, it's this: the building sector is sick of being redesigned every election cycle. Five spokespeople — National, Labour, ACT, TOP and the Greens — went head to head on regulation, workforce and product approvals. Here's where they clashed, and where they didn't.

Where there's real consensus

• Broad cross-party support for the Infrastructure Commission and the National Infrastructure Plan.
• Everyone agrees the workforce pipeline needs fixing — training more young Kiwis rather than relying on migration.
• The Building Code's new 3-year review cycle is seen as a win for reducing regulatory churn.

Where they split

• National is banking on incremental reform: clearer overseas product approval pathways, self-certification for more trades, and private Building Consent Authorities to inject competition.
• ACT wants to go further and faster — cutting consents issued by councils in half from 40,000 to 20,000 per year, proposing an RMA replacement, and digitising approvals using AI. The ACT Party's vision for cutting building consents is driven by a free-market approach aimed at removing councils from the consenting process.
• Labour will prioritise training and workforce development, opening up funding and support to bring more apprentices into the workforce. They do not see the need to rush AI adoption/technology, rather they pushed back hard on relying on AI or “technocratic” shortcuts, arguing that political and industry expertise still matters more.
• TOP made the boldest structural pitch: an independent, Reserve Bank-style Infrastructure Commission to remove infrastructure decisions from political swings entirely.
• The Greens prioritised warm, dry, resilient housing standards and social housing investment — NZ sits at just 3.8% social housing stock vs an 8–9% OECD average.

The sharpest exchange

An industry question on failing window products — with MBIE reportedly needing another 12 months to investigate — exposed a rare moment of full agreement: enforcement resourcing is broken, and it's hurting local manufacturers and legitimate importers alike.

The takeaway

Simplification is coming from every direction. The real question for our sector is which version of “faster” survives the election — and whether product approval reform finally gets the resourcing it needs.

For the record … present were:

• Chris Penk — National MP, Minister for Building and Construction
• Simon Court — ACT Party List Member, Energy and Resources, Infrastructure, and Climate Change spokesperson
• Arena Williams — Labour MP, Building & Construction spokesperson
• Daniel Eb — The Opportunities Party (TOP), deputy leader
• Dr Lawrence Xu-Nan — Green Party MP, Building & Construction spokesperson

Panel #3: Construction League Builders' Panel

NZ's Top Builders Are Fewer, Bigger, and Betting on AI

The 2025 Construction League numbers tell a blunt story: fewer projects, bigger dollars, and a growing gap between the top tier and everyone else. Six Five industry leaders spoke to what's really happening on the ground — and where the next wave of work is coming from.

The numbers

• 843 projects commenced across NZ's top 50 builders in 2025 — down -5% on the year.
• Combined value held steady at $8.7 billion.
• The top 10 builders now account for more than half of all project value — $4.7 billion.

What's driving the split

Clients are consolidating around proven, trusted delivery partners for complex work. Regions like Queenstown and the South Island are outperforming Auckland and Wellington, and diversification — from small jobs to nine-figure builds — is proving to be the best insulation against a patchy market.

The workforce warning

Every panellist flagged the same structural risk: construction lurches between a shortage of work and a shortage of workers, with almost no in-between. Unemployment in the sector has climbed, but the next upturn will hit a workforce that isn't ready — and NZ is competing directly with Australia's own construction boom for the same talent.

AI is already in the toolkit

This wasn't theoretical. Panellists are using AI for back-office automation, subcontractor scoring, and tendering — with Master Builders NZ's Ankit Sharma singling out Claude by name for genuinely useful day-to-day work.

Where the growth is

Health, education and infrastructure topped every list, with renewables, rail, and a possible second wave of data centre construction mentioned as ones to watch.

The takeaway

The builders at the top are pulling further ahead — not through luck, but through diversification, trusted supply chains, and early adoption of tools the rest of the sector is still weighing up. Investing in people and technology now, while the market is quiet, is the clear consensus.

For the record … present were:

• Bruno Goedeke — Chief Executive, Naylor Love
• Craig Treloar — Executive General Manager, Hawkins
• Kerin Russell-Smith — Executive Director, Dominion Constructors
• Ben Hurrell — Head of Project and Tendering, Hubexo
• Ankit Sharma — Chief Executive, Master Builders NZ
• Kirsten Magnusson — Chief Executive, Building Institute Aotearoa
• Jérémie Henry — Director of Growth, Cupix (moderator)

So there are some clear, positive signs appearing in the residential market; however, we need to prepare for a long runway through to next year before we see real evidence.

The dynamics in non-residential construction are changing. With government work increasing at a rate expected to be faster than the private sector, we are seeing a growing trend of larger builders taking a larger share.

The other positive is around the opportunity for industry to further collaborate. It’s a good vision seeing the three individuals entering a bar to prop up the hospitality sector. But the big question is: who will pay for the first round of drinks?