This month the 7th National Pipeline Report was released, forecasting both residential and commercial construction for the next five years. Combined it is estimated construction in 2019 will reach ~$31B, peaking in 2021 at ~$35B.

Here is a quick summary of the highlights:

• Nationwide, an increase from 33,000 consents in 2019 to 38,000 consents per year from 2022 to 2024 (+18%)
• 61% of this growth will be in Auckland, which will represent 45% of both the value and the total number of residential building consents in 2024
• Commercial construction to peak in 2021 and then drop 20% by 2024
• In Auckland, consent volumes will increase 33% from 12,862 to 17,100 consents per year by 2024.
• Nationwide, multi-units (townhouses, apartments, retirement units) will account for 41% of 2024 volume by number. Consent growth will be driven by this typology, while detached units will remain constant at around 24,000 units per year
• In Auckland, 58% of the 96,000 dwellings to be consented by 2024 will be multi-unit. Detached unit volumes will again remain flat
• Total construction value (including infrastructure, as well as residential and commercial construction) will be relatively consistent between 2022 and 2024 at $42b per year. Approximately 64% of this value is in residential, 18% in both non-residential and infrastructure by 2024
• Compared with last year’s forecast, a peak of 43,000 consents by 2023 has been reduced to 38,000 consents. There has been a reduction in the impact of KiwiBuild on the total number of dwelling consents but this is not quantified